Aurora Odds

Choose where you are

Should you go outside and look up?

The next hour of aurora, for your exact sky: the odds, the dark, the clouds, and which way to face.

What the Sun is sending

Loading the solar wind measured a million and a half kilometres upstream…

southward field (opens the door)already measured, arriving soon

The last twelve hours

How this works

Measured upstream. Spacecraft at the L1 point, 1.5 million km sunward, sample the solar wind every minute. That wind reaches Earth 20 to 80 minutes later, so the next stretch of weather is already known.

Read by an open model. TabPFN, an open-weights tabular foundation model, reads 2,000 labelled half-hours from 1998 to 2019 in context. It is never trained on them; it returns a full probability distribution for the coming hour's geomagnetic activity.

Mapped to your sky. One distribution answers every latitude: your geomagnetic latitude sets the activity level you need, and the page adds darkness, cloud cover and the direction to face.

Tested on 2023 to 2026, years the model never saw. Replay a real storm night: London, 10 May 2024 · Chicago, 10 October 2024. Code and results: GitHub.